US & World Economy –
What a difference a few months can make! Last year’s fears of double-dip recessions and Greek tragedies have given way to large job growths (636,000 job gains in the first quarter), improved investor confidence, and the best first quarter for the S&P 500 in 14 years (up 12.6%). The question is will this growthcontinue or peter out like it did after the spring gains in 2011 and 2010? With a large Band-Aid on Europe, a 7.5% soft landing in China and continued modest growth in the US (2 – 2.5% GDP), we expect the economy and financial markets to churn mostly sideways through the Fall, and not experience the 16-18% mid-year drops of the previous two years.